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Sunday, April 18, 2010

Market Assessment

The volatility I was expecting on option expiration friday sure did show up, with the blame thrown on the Goldman Sachs fiasco.  Looking at the charts, it was encouraging to see the market close above 11,000.  I still think that we have a bit of a run left (3 more weeks?).  I lost a lot of the gains I had in BCSI, but the stock showed good strength and recovered its losses (just like the market).  The only reason I didn't close that position when I closed out my HD position was that the potential gains in BCSI are much much higher.  If it does run up to my target, the options can pay off huge.  I was right about not jumping back into ISRG.  It did fail as I expected once earnings were announced.   So the leaders are nearing exhaustion.  Good earnings should continue to roll in and drive the market up to the anticipated target (see older posts).  I am over 50% in cash now and continue to be cautious.  I will post if I see any other opportunities, but Monday is more of a wait and see for me (if I had to guess, we are probably going to see a further decline in some stocks before the trend resumes)..

Update Note:  keep an eye on AMD - nice cup and handle formation.  Fundamentals are strengthening.  It would be a buy if it breaks out soon with target of 14 in the near term.

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