I am beginning to realize that blogging about anything takes time and dedication. It is too easy for me to skip posts and focus on other things. Lately I have been too busy at work to put any attention towards stocks. But that is the time when I usually fail to get out of the market and then lose money because I was unable to pay any attention to my positions. So, I am taking some time to review the market, my positions and the general overall feeling that I have.
I am probably about 50% in the market at the moment with the rest in cash. The pull back has affected my portfolio a little bit but not to a point where I start fretting about the losses. As the markets have pulled back, the general market sentiment has turned negative in a hurry with a very large bearish attitude. Combine that with a nuclear melt down, a tsunami, the Libyan war that is now brewing, and we should have the climate to have a strong rally if everything works out. I am wishing well for the Japanese nation and hope they can get things under control. The Libyan situation doesn't seem like it should get too messy for the US since a lot of UN members are in on the assault and the enforcement of the no-fly zone.
The job situation has been improving lately, but with the post office about to lay off 40,000 people, the numbers may increase again (unless offset by the private sector). The FED will probably continue to keep interest rates at negligible level. If you have been monitoring 30 yr rates lately, they have been declining. So the market is expecting the interest rates to remain low as well.
Coffee prices continue to climb. The chart makes me nervous (JO) but I have entered long on the coffee ETF since the long term trend is still intact and I think we may see another strong push towards 100. The prices at the retail continue to climb. But it cannot go on forever. I am trying to make a momentum play and have Good till cancelled sell orders placed at the $85 mark.
I am fairly optimistic about Intuitive Surgical. The stock has been consolidating its gains at the top, and despite minor pullbacks still continues to show strong support. I think if the next earnings blow out estimates (as they normally do), we can see a huge move in the stock. F is at a good buy point and will probably realize better sales due to the Japanese auto production slowdown/stoppage. Garmin has been a solid stock and I think its getting ready to make a move to 36 soon. All we need is some positive news. But there will probably be more pain in the near future. It really depends on your time horizon. If you are a long term holder then you can probably ride out the turbulence. But if the republicans insist on cutting spending, they may end up killing the recovery and then all bets are off. So if you are still in the market, play it cautiously and only if you can keep tabs on your positions. Probably stay away from options for the time being unless you are trying to play short term rallies, and then take your profits when they materialize.
