Update

Sorry for the lack of posts, but I have been unavailable due to a family medical emergency.  My dad had open heart surgery and is now recovering.  That combined with a new job have left me with precious little time for sleep let alone for stock analysis.  Hopefully, some analysis will resume by early Dec. 

The only thing I have been watching is the DOW.  The 11,000 level has held so far.  With a lot of worries in the market (insider trading scandal, North and South Korea skirmishes, lot of new news coverage about bank failures, etc.),  there is a possibility for the uptrend to resume.  So keep a close eye on the market and look for opportunities.

General

I have started a full time day job again, so there will be no during the day updates anymore.  Which makes it a bit different on playing the market.  Analysis at the end of the day and execution the next day makes trading a lot more challenging.  So the style will need to become a lot more suited for swing trading.  Last few days have been brutal to my portfolio.  The option portfolio has lost about 30% of its value while I wasn't watching. 

There is a lot of selling in the market lately.  The big players have been selling on the news.  The bull scenario is that its a pullback and with Fed pumping all the liquidity in the market, its inevitable that stocks will continue to go up.  (And there is the conventional wisdom of "Don't fight the FED").   This is now reflected in option pricing where put premiums are declining dramatically compared with a month ago.

At the same time, if everyone reaches the same conclusion and enters the market, then there are no buyers left and the market peaks leading to a big pullback.    Lot of leading stocks are already showing selling pressure.

So watch out for a big pullback possibility.  It may not portend a market top, but it could put a dent in your portfolio. 

STEM

Buying STEM stock.  Just to see what I can do with it.  Stock is trading around 1.02-1.03 range.
I am thinking it has a shot at reaching 1.50 within a month or two.

Selling 1/2 of LOGI Dec 20 Calls at 2.05

Even though I don't want to do it, prudent money management compels me to sell 1/2 of my position in Logitech calls at 2.05 for a 300% plus gain on that half of the position in less than a week.  I can see if I should let the rest of the position run for now.  Logitech is having an investor conference that is resulting in a spike in the stock price.  With Google TV devices on the market, there will be a lot of coverage for LogiTech.

Update:  12:22pm-   The options are now up to 2.85 bid and 3+ on the ask.

New Position - Macy's (M)

Buying Dec 25 calls of Macy's (M) at $1.56  (Kind of a gamble on the improving economy and the stock market advance making buyers feel better).

Earnings come out tomorrow.  Also, there are rumors that a buyout by a private equity firm may be brewing with a target price of $34-35 if they become reality.  Hence the Dec calls to give me a bit more time in case they don't beat earnings.

LOGI update

LOGI Dec 20 calls that we bought at 0.45 on Friday (Nov 5) are now bid at 1.25 and ask at 1.35.  Looks like about a 200% gain so far.  However, if momentum builds and the market cooperates, I think Logitech could hit 25 before long.

Stock Updates - RIG / YHOO / F

RIG is up strong today.  My Nov 70 Options that 2 days ago were worth about 0.30 are now bid at 1.35 and offered at 1.39.  Chart pattern looks good.  Going to see where we go for a bit longer.

YHOO Dec 17 options bought at 0.50 are now worth 1.15 bid and 1.18 ask for over a 100% gain.  Take profits now or let them run.  Thinking about selling 1/2 my position and keeping the rest for a couple of days.  But I just might keep them all for another day or two.

Selling F - Nov 16 options at 0.71 (0.71 bid , 0.72 ask).   Bought these at 0.40 on Nov 4.   Banking a 77% profit in 5 days.  Note:  Be careful with Ford, it may be nearing a short term peak.  If you choose to stay in,  you will need to watch it closely.

Buying - JDSU

Opening a long position (stocks) in JDSU.
Stock is trading around 11.91 at the moment.
Good article in Barron's giving momentum to stock.  Stock has pulled back some since this morning. 
Interesting factoid:  In the internet bubble days, the stock was at $1000 per share.

Selling - HPQ Calls

Closing out the HPQ Dec 45 calls around 1.13 each.  Currently bid at 1.12 and ask at 1.15

Purchased them at 0.71 cents - pocketing about a 55% gain in about 10 days.

Call Gamble - Yahoo

Rumors abound that AOL will be making a bid for YHOO.  Looking at the chart of YHOO, it is in a nice flag pattern.  So I have decided to roll the dice and buy some Dec 17 calls.  They are trading at 0.48 bid and 0.50 ask. 

Here are some big players that are reporting earnings next week.
Not sure how to feel about Solar stocks since the last two either dropped or popped and dropped.
PCLN will probably beat as expected.  FOSL has been spectacular in the last several months.

-Mon: LDK Solar (LDK)  Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF), Priceline.com (PCLN)
-Tues: Fossil (FOSL), JA Solar (JASO), Playboy (PLA), Tesla Motors (TSLA)
-Wed: Macy's (M), Polo Ralph Lauren (RL), Sara Lee (SLE), Bob Evans (BOBE), Cisco Systems (CSCO)
-Thurs: Kohl's (KSS), Viacom (VIAB), Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR), NVIDIA (NVDA), Sunpower (SPWRA), Walt Disney (DIS)
-Fri: DR Horton (DHI), JC Penney (JCP), Wendy's (WEN)

Undoubtedly, some of these stocks will gap higher, others will drop even though they will beat earnings because their runs are getting extended.  Its getting tougher to play the earnings game since the temptation is just to go long, but they can as easily drop.  Play them carefully.

Breakout Stocks - DECK and SAM

SAM and DECK both have broken out of bases today.  I wish SAM had come on my radar yesterday.  Its up over $7 today (almost 10 percent).  DECK has been a stellar stock in the past and is breaking into new high territory. 

New Position - LOGI

Logitech chart looks good.  Stock was downgraded, yet did not fall much and recovered.  Dec 20 calls are 0.40 bid and 0.45 ask.  I am taking a long position using the calls at 0.45.

New Position - IPG

The IPG chart looks pretty good.  I have played this pattern successfully a few time in the last few days.  If the market continues to show strength, we should see some upward movement out of this pattern.  The stock broke out of a nice base a while back.  It has now been consolidating for some time and should make a move if a catalyst comes about (or the market makes a strong move up).   To minimize risk, I will be buying the Dec 11 calls (bid at 0.20 and ask at 0.35).  You should be able to pick some up around 0.30.  I am looking for at least a 200% gain on this position (which would definitely occur if the stock hits 12).  It is possible for the stock to make a run for 14 before running into major resistance.

Market

Market trend now definitely seems up with the strong break to the upside thru the resistance level.  The next series of resistance points for the DOW are:  11,800/12,000  -  13,000  and then 14,200 or so.  

In yesterday's rally, the leaders lagged.  However, the leaders have all come up so much that they are near their peaks.  Make money while you can, but be careful.

New Position - Momentum Play - F

Ford (F) is up on strong Oct sales today.
I already have a long stock position in F.
Opening new Nov 16 calls at 0.40  (be careful buying, there are weekly options that expire earlier than that out there- these expire on 11/18.

Update on CSTR

CSTR has recovered most of the lost ground for the day.

The NOV 65 calls (purchased at 0.75) are now bid at 1.05 and ask at 1.15
The Dec 65 calls (purchased at 1.94) are now bid at 2.35 and ask at 2.50.

CAT, of course, is trading higher.  But a very important lesson is not to complain about making money.  Don't let the fact that you decided to sell and make a profit cloud your judgment next time around.  You can always get back into the position if the opportunity is there. 

The market is strong.  However, a lot of my patterns might be approaching peaks - can't say if it will be next week or next month, but it goes without saying that be careful out there.  We may see a wave 5 out there, which would mean strong move to the upside in a short amount of time before the peak is hit.  The question is whether I will have the courage to short the market when the time comes...

New Position - CSTR call options

Buying Nov 65 calls for CSTR for  0.75.
Buying Dec 65 calls for CSTR for  1.94

I am already long in CSTR stock. 
The stock broke out of a flag pattern recently.  If the pattern repeats we could see a huge gain here.

Market / Position Update - CAT

Close out your position in Caterpillar (CAT) Nov 80 calls.  Calls are bid at 3.35 and ask at 3.40.  The entry price was around 1.26 so this is a nice 165% return for less than a week.  Stock will probably go up farther but since my options are Nov options, I am closing out the position.

BID, of course, if back up.  Trying to decide if I should play it again or not.  There are plenty of other opportunities in the market these days.

I got into ISRG 3 or 4 days ago.  Still pretty reluctant to recommend it because it is a very high risk stock if the market drops.  But so far, the stock has been climbing for me.  So far so good.

CSTR is still hanging out around 60.  I will probably add to that position at some point in time.

New position - STEC / Other updates

Opened a new call position in STEC - Dec 17 calls for 1.20  -  Options are currently bid at 1.16 and ask at 1.26.

BID plunged over 2 dollars this morning without any reason or news.  That means sellers came in around the point where the recent previous high was challenged.  The Dec 40 options went down from near 7 to around 5 at this time.  Will continue to monitor and decide whether to take profit or continue to let them run.

Update:  I decided to sell the BID calls and bank the profits.  I don't like the chart at this time.  Although it will probably continue to go up now that I am exiting the position.  Selling the options at 4.70 - Remember this is pure profit since 1/2 of the position was closed earlier for 100% profit.  This banks about a  95% profit on the whole position.

I am getting concerned about the  market nearing a top.  The market has been acting strong.  But continue to watch closely for signs of weakness.

CAT (Caterpillar) Update

CAT seems to be picking up momentum.  The options I got for 1.26 are now trading at 1.88 bid, 1.90 ask (after they made a trip down to 0.80).  Will continue to follow and determine exit point. 

DOW seems to have good momentum at this time.  Indicators seem like this might be the try that gets us into new highs.