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Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Rally for real?

Markets did run into resistance this morning, and are slowly starting to come back.  But I just wanted to share that something is still making me uneasy in this rally.  I went back and took a closer look at the charts.  This rally is occurring on low volume.  It even seems lower than the average volume.  Down days are on higher than average volume and up days are on lower than average volume.  Top that with Secretary Geithner's comments about unemployment will continue to grow and the slowdown in GDP and the possibility of a double dip recession, and I start getting real nervous. 

In argument for a rally, there is the easing of the Fed.  If easy money continues to flood the market, it will more than likely end up in the stock market since there is not much of a return to be had elsewhere.  But not quite sure how high this rally can take us without more volume coming in.  Mutual Funds have now had a net outflow for 12 weeks straight.  That does make an argument for quite a bit of money on the sidelines, but it still makes me nervous. 

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