Sorry for the lack of posts, but I have been unavailable due to a family medical emergency. My dad had open heart surgery and is now recovering. That combined with a new job have left me with precious little time for sleep let alone for stock analysis. Hopefully, some analysis will resume by early Dec.
The only thing I have been watching is the DOW. The 11,000 level has held so far. With a lot of worries in the market (insider trading scandal, North and South Korea skirmishes, lot of new news coverage about bank failures, etc.), there is a possibility for the uptrend to resume. So keep a close eye on the market and look for opportunities.
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
Monday, November 15, 2010
General
I have started a full time day job again, so there will be no during the day updates anymore. Which makes it a bit different on playing the market. Analysis at the end of the day and execution the next day makes trading a lot more challenging. So the style will need to become a lot more suited for swing trading. Last few days have been brutal to my portfolio. The option portfolio has lost about 30% of its value while I wasn't watching.
There is a lot of selling in the market lately. The big players have been selling on the news. The bull scenario is that its a pullback and with Fed pumping all the liquidity in the market, its inevitable that stocks will continue to go up. (And there is the conventional wisdom of "Don't fight the FED"). This is now reflected in option pricing where put premiums are declining dramatically compared with a month ago.
At the same time, if everyone reaches the same conclusion and enters the market, then there are no buyers left and the market peaks leading to a big pullback. Lot of leading stocks are already showing selling pressure.
So watch out for a big pullback possibility. It may not portend a market top, but it could put a dent in your portfolio.
There is a lot of selling in the market lately. The big players have been selling on the news. The bull scenario is that its a pullback and with Fed pumping all the liquidity in the market, its inevitable that stocks will continue to go up. (And there is the conventional wisdom of "Don't fight the FED"). This is now reflected in option pricing where put premiums are declining dramatically compared with a month ago.
At the same time, if everyone reaches the same conclusion and enters the market, then there are no buyers left and the market peaks leading to a big pullback. Lot of leading stocks are already showing selling pressure.
So watch out for a big pullback possibility. It may not portend a market top, but it could put a dent in your portfolio.
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
STEM
Buying STEM stock. Just to see what I can do with it. Stock is trading around 1.02-1.03 range.
I am thinking it has a shot at reaching 1.50 within a month or two.
I am thinking it has a shot at reaching 1.50 within a month or two.
Selling 1/2 of LOGI Dec 20 Calls at 2.05
Even though I don't want to do it, prudent money management compels me to sell 1/2 of my position in Logitech calls at 2.05 for a 300% plus gain on that half of the position in less than a week. I can see if I should let the rest of the position run for now. Logitech is having an investor conference that is resulting in a spike in the stock price. With Google TV devices on the market, there will be a lot of coverage for LogiTech.
Update: 12:22pm- The options are now up to 2.85 bid and 3+ on the ask.
Update: 12:22pm- The options are now up to 2.85 bid and 3+ on the ask.
New Position - Macy's (M)
Buying Dec 25 calls of Macy's (M) at $1.56 (Kind of a gamble on the improving economy and the stock market advance making buyers feel better).
Earnings come out tomorrow. Also, there are rumors that a buyout by a private equity firm may be brewing with a target price of $34-35 if they become reality. Hence the Dec calls to give me a bit more time in case they don't beat earnings.
Earnings come out tomorrow. Also, there are rumors that a buyout by a private equity firm may be brewing with a target price of $34-35 if they become reality. Hence the Dec calls to give me a bit more time in case they don't beat earnings.
LOGI update
LOGI Dec 20 calls that we bought at 0.45 on Friday (Nov 5) are now bid at 1.25 and ask at 1.35. Looks like about a 200% gain so far. However, if momentum builds and the market cooperates, I think Logitech could hit 25 before long.
Stock Updates - RIG / YHOO / F
RIG is up strong today. My Nov 70 Options that 2 days ago were worth about 0.30 are now bid at 1.35 and offered at 1.39. Chart pattern looks good. Going to see where we go for a bit longer.
YHOO Dec 17 options bought at 0.50 are now worth 1.15 bid and 1.18 ask for over a 100% gain. Take profits now or let them run. Thinking about selling 1/2 my position and keeping the rest for a couple of days. But I just might keep them all for another day or two.
Selling F - Nov 16 options at 0.71 (0.71 bid , 0.72 ask). Bought these at 0.40 on Nov 4. Banking a 77% profit in 5 days. Note: Be careful with Ford, it may be nearing a short term peak. If you choose to stay in, you will need to watch it closely.
YHOO Dec 17 options bought at 0.50 are now worth 1.15 bid and 1.18 ask for over a 100% gain. Take profits now or let them run. Thinking about selling 1/2 my position and keeping the rest for a couple of days. But I just might keep them all for another day or two.
Selling F - Nov 16 options at 0.71 (0.71 bid , 0.72 ask). Bought these at 0.40 on Nov 4. Banking a 77% profit in 5 days. Note: Be careful with Ford, it may be nearing a short term peak. If you choose to stay in, you will need to watch it closely.
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