Thursday, June 16, 2011
Market jitters
I don't like the look of this market at all. I think we may be headed for a pretty significant pullback. I have been raising cash lately. I am about 70%+ in cash already but will probably end up going 100% to cash real soon. There may be some hope in the near term (daily charts) but the weekly and monthly charts are starting to look like a bunch of head and shoulder patterns are forming in a lot of leaders. We are starting to see the initial breakdown in some of the former leaders and the stochastics are starting to turn downwards. Better be safe and conserve capital to fight another day. There could be some downside opportunities coming up. Nothing has made me any money on the long side of the trade in over 6 weeks. Maybe the short side is the way to go. Be careful and watch the market carefully if you continue to be long.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Market update
I am beginning to realize that blogging about anything takes time and dedication. It is too easy for me to skip posts and focus on other things. Lately I have been too busy at work to put any attention towards stocks. But that is the time when I usually fail to get out of the market and then lose money because I was unable to pay any attention to my positions. So, I am taking some time to review the market, my positions and the general overall feeling that I have.
I am probably about 50% in the market at the moment with the rest in cash. The pull back has affected my portfolio a little bit but not to a point where I start fretting about the losses. As the markets have pulled back, the general market sentiment has turned negative in a hurry with a very large bearish attitude. Combine that with a nuclear melt down, a tsunami, the Libyan war that is now brewing, and we should have the climate to have a strong rally if everything works out. I am wishing well for the Japanese nation and hope they can get things under control. The Libyan situation doesn't seem like it should get too messy for the US since a lot of UN members are in on the assault and the enforcement of the no-fly zone.
The job situation has been improving lately, but with the post office about to lay off 40,000 people, the numbers may increase again (unless offset by the private sector). The FED will probably continue to keep interest rates at negligible level. If you have been monitoring 30 yr rates lately, they have been declining. So the market is expecting the interest rates to remain low as well.
Coffee prices continue to climb. The chart makes me nervous (JO) but I have entered long on the coffee ETF since the long term trend is still intact and I think we may see another strong push towards 100. The prices at the retail continue to climb. But it cannot go on forever. I am trying to make a momentum play and have Good till cancelled sell orders placed at the $85 mark.
I am fairly optimistic about Intuitive Surgical. The stock has been consolidating its gains at the top, and despite minor pullbacks still continues to show strong support. I think if the next earnings blow out estimates (as they normally do), we can see a huge move in the stock. F is at a good buy point and will probably realize better sales due to the Japanese auto production slowdown/stoppage. Garmin has been a solid stock and I think its getting ready to make a move to 36 soon. All we need is some positive news. But there will probably be more pain in the near future. It really depends on your time horizon. If you are a long term holder then you can probably ride out the turbulence. But if the republicans insist on cutting spending, they may end up killing the recovery and then all bets are off. So if you are still in the market, play it cautiously and only if you can keep tabs on your positions. Probably stay away from options for the time being unless you are trying to play short term rallies, and then take your profits when they materialize.
I am probably about 50% in the market at the moment with the rest in cash. The pull back has affected my portfolio a little bit but not to a point where I start fretting about the losses. As the markets have pulled back, the general market sentiment has turned negative in a hurry with a very large bearish attitude. Combine that with a nuclear melt down, a tsunami, the Libyan war that is now brewing, and we should have the climate to have a strong rally if everything works out. I am wishing well for the Japanese nation and hope they can get things under control. The Libyan situation doesn't seem like it should get too messy for the US since a lot of UN members are in on the assault and the enforcement of the no-fly zone.
The job situation has been improving lately, but with the post office about to lay off 40,000 people, the numbers may increase again (unless offset by the private sector). The FED will probably continue to keep interest rates at negligible level. If you have been monitoring 30 yr rates lately, they have been declining. So the market is expecting the interest rates to remain low as well.
Coffee prices continue to climb. The chart makes me nervous (JO) but I have entered long on the coffee ETF since the long term trend is still intact and I think we may see another strong push towards 100. The prices at the retail continue to climb. But it cannot go on forever. I am trying to make a momentum play and have Good till cancelled sell orders placed at the $85 mark.
I am fairly optimistic about Intuitive Surgical. The stock has been consolidating its gains at the top, and despite minor pullbacks still continues to show strong support. I think if the next earnings blow out estimates (as they normally do), we can see a huge move in the stock. F is at a good buy point and will probably realize better sales due to the Japanese auto production slowdown/stoppage. Garmin has been a solid stock and I think its getting ready to make a move to 36 soon. All we need is some positive news. But there will probably be more pain in the near future. It really depends on your time horizon. If you are a long term holder then you can probably ride out the turbulence. But if the republicans insist on cutting spending, they may end up killing the recovery and then all bets are off. So if you are still in the market, play it cautiously and only if you can keep tabs on your positions. Probably stay away from options for the time being unless you are trying to play short term rallies, and then take your profits when they materialize.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Market update
Soon after I got out, it appears that the market staged a nice rally and most of the stocks are back to or above the levels where I exited the market. I did enter new positions in First Solar (FSLR) and JA Solar Holding (JASO) - I wonder if I bought it since the company is named with my initials :-)
I have also held onto BCSI, IBM and reentered ISRG. I missed out on the big move by Chipotle (CMG). Heard they are launching a new asian cuisine chain. That could really get growth to spurt if successful. I took profits in JO (coffee ETF and SGG - Sugar ETF). The Sugar ETF was timed well, the coffee as well, but the coffee ETF has taken off since then. I am looking to reenter the coffee etf if the position presents itself. I believe Coffee prices will continue to increase for a while. Sugar might also be attractive as it has pulled back 10% or so.
I am just too busy at work to mess too much with stocks. Hence the reduced number of posts. I currently have open long call positions in AMSC (losing money), FORM (losing money - didn't take my 150% profits), GLW (profitable), GRMN (profitable), and Ford (about breakeven).
Markets have been acting strong and I am beginning to think that my old analysis that was thinking about DOW 13500 or higher may not be far fetched anymore. However, the Nasdaq is approaching the high set in late 2007. A pull back may occur soon in the markets. So I am cautiously optimistic.
I have also held onto BCSI, IBM and reentered ISRG. I missed out on the big move by Chipotle (CMG). Heard they are launching a new asian cuisine chain. That could really get growth to spurt if successful. I took profits in JO (coffee ETF and SGG - Sugar ETF). The Sugar ETF was timed well, the coffee as well, but the coffee ETF has taken off since then. I am looking to reenter the coffee etf if the position presents itself. I believe Coffee prices will continue to increase for a while. Sugar might also be attractive as it has pulled back 10% or so.
I am just too busy at work to mess too much with stocks. Hence the reduced number of posts. I currently have open long call positions in AMSC (losing money), FORM (losing money - didn't take my 150% profits), GLW (profitable), GRMN (profitable), and Ford (about breakeven).
Markets have been acting strong and I am beginning to think that my old analysis that was thinking about DOW 13500 or higher may not be far fetched anymore. However, the Nasdaq is approaching the high set in late 2007. A pull back may occur soon in the markets. So I am cautiously optimistic.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Whew - Close call
The decision to sell early this morning turned out to be the right one. I saved a major hit to the portfolio by going to cash. Even strong players got hit hard today. Generally down days come in threes. So expect to see more downward pressure. Since the DOW got rejected at 12,000 I expect a pull back, some consolidation, then another attempt at breaking 12,000. Be careful, and make some money.
Going mostly to cash
Crazy action. Selling on good news is prevalent. Crash on bad news also. Going mostly to cash again except for my commodities ETFs.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Position Updates
Closed out my GLW calls for 1.10 and the puts for 0.8 for about a 50% profit on the position. Of course, I sold too early (and I was sure I was selling early). But I then entered a long position on GLW with the Aug 2011 - $22 calls. They are now up around 0.40 as well (but the entry price was around 1.48). I believe the stock has good potential to move up a bit more.
I also entered new positions (shares) in SGG (sugar ETF) and JO (coffee ETF). I should have entered the sugar ETF last thursday when I hesitated and missed out on about an 8% move already. But these trends have to be a bit longer term (due to floods in Brazil, Australia, and coffee production impacts in Columbia and Brazil). Even Starbucks lowered their projections based upon the assumption that they will pay more for coffee (and if you are a coffee drinker, you might have noticed the price spikes at the grocery store). This is my first venture into commodity ETFs. Let's see how it plays out.
I also entered new positions (shares) in SGG (sugar ETF) and JO (coffee ETF). I should have entered the sugar ETF last thursday when I hesitated and missed out on about an 8% move already. But these trends have to be a bit longer term (due to floods in Brazil, Australia, and coffee production impacts in Columbia and Brazil). Even Starbucks lowered their projections based upon the assumption that they will pay more for coffee (and if you are a coffee drinker, you might have noticed the price spikes at the grocery store). This is my first venture into commodity ETFs. Let's see how it plays out.
Monday, January 24, 2011
New Position
Opening a strangle on Corning (GLW) - with Feb 20 calls and Feb 19 puts for a net entry cost of around 0.79 per share (call + put). Earnings coming out on Tuesday.
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