Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Bull Trend Intact ?
After a big scare, the market appears to have resumed its upward trend. We are seeing volume coming back in the market on up days. Either this has been the perfect bear trap or the bulls are back in charge. Based on the Elliott wave theory, we are probably about to enter wave 5 of the market uptrend. That is the fastest and steepest gains that offer immense opportunity for making money quickly. However, since wave 5 is followed by a significant pullback, caution is in order to watch for stock topping patterns and lock in profits. I ended up going to mostly cash for a while. I couldn't help but nibble here and there. I doubled my money in an Accenture option position, but overall the portfolio lost significant value (15-18% of total value) from a peak of $18,500 down to around $15,000. I am now cautiously optimistic again and looking for good patterns to play long positions.
Friday, January 31, 2014
What a difference a day/week makes...
The day after the last post, I was riding high. The portfolio reached as high as $18,500. The market rocked and everything seemed to be rosy (which made me wonder if the end was near). Anyway, since then, the portfolio value has retreated back to around $15,000, I am about 90% in cash. And there appears to be no end to the misery. My current positions are a debit spread on AOL (about a 50% loss), Sprint (20% down), PHM (about break even), GTI (closed 40% of the positions at 100%, looking at 100% loss on the rest, resulting in a slight overall loss unless it reverses before Feb expiration), SYY (looking at losing most of the secondary investment - the original returned several hundred percent), HD (Home Depot) - 90% loss, and DRYS (DryShips) is looking at around a 65% loss at the moment. I regrouped and closed out my GroupOn positions yesterday, along with the remaining 1 AOL option (that was not part of the spread) in order to raise cash. With a strong market day yesterday and a strong opening this morning, I was surprised to see the DOW down 200 points soon afterwards. Now I am glad I raised some cash.
Looking at the market using DOW's Weekly Chart, we see that there is a possibility that we are in wave 4 in the long term trend. This means that eventually this can turn out to be a bear trap resulting in an explosive move to the upside (Wave 5). However, I don't wish to have all my eggs in that basket until I see evidence supporting it. I like the economic news for the US. The sell-offs in Asia have me baffled a bit. However, if you have ever read Jesse Livermore's book, he used to say the market does what it does. When people ask him why the market went up/down, he picked up the paper and just pointed to a story and said that's why. My philosophy now is to let the market tell me what I should do. After things being rosy and most of the trades being profitable, all of a sudden most of my long trades are losing money. That tells me to lighten my exposure, step back and reevaluate. Sometime that means going to cash and waiting to see which way the trend will go.
And while you are waiting, enjoy yourself, take a break and enjoy the feeling of being in cash while the market whipsaws the bulls and the bears.
Looking at the market using DOW's Weekly Chart, we see that there is a possibility that we are in wave 4 in the long term trend. This means that eventually this can turn out to be a bear trap resulting in an explosive move to the upside (Wave 5). However, I don't wish to have all my eggs in that basket until I see evidence supporting it. I like the economic news for the US. The sell-offs in Asia have me baffled a bit. However, if you have ever read Jesse Livermore's book, he used to say the market does what it does. When people ask him why the market went up/down, he picked up the paper and just pointed to a story and said that's why. My philosophy now is to let the market tell me what I should do. After things being rosy and most of the trades being profitable, all of a sudden most of my long trades are losing money. That tells me to lighten my exposure, step back and reevaluate. Sometime that means going to cash and waiting to see which way the trend will go.
And while you are waiting, enjoy yourself, take a break and enjoy the feeling of being in cash while the market whipsaws the bulls and the bears.
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
An apology and updates
Wow, I just realized that it has been over 2 years since my last update. I knew I had been slacking, but this is ridiculous. I will try to do more frequent updates (I am pretty sure that is what I was thinking last time as well).
I started this account with $3000 in the beginning of 2010 with the goal of turning it into $1 Million. Let's see where we are with that goal. As of yesterday, the account is around $16000 and I pulled out around $1400 to pay for my toys (XBox One, PS4, and some other electronics). By the end of 2010, the account had a return of around 100%. Then I lost track because I failed to download my statements. But I had made it up to around $12,000. At that point, I was introduced to the guys at Tasty Trade. I listened to what Tom has to say and it made a lot of sense. So I started following their style of investing, which is stay small, sell premium (instead of buying calls and puts, I was selling calls and puts trying for about an 8 to 10 percent return per month). However, they were somewhat biased towards a market drop (bears). To make a long story short, over the next year I managed to lose 50% of the portfolio and ended back around $6000. I am not saying anything bad about their style but it didn't work for me in this market. It will work much better in a sideways market (or a trending market if you pick the right side).
In Dec 2012, the portfolio was worth $8000. And as I mentioned earlier, now the value is around $16,000 (so the 2013 return was around 100%). Granted I have not pulled money out of this account to pay for taxes, which is probably something I should do in order to have a true representation of performance in an taxable account. In 3 years, the portfolio has generated a return of approximately 450%+ on the original investment.
So now I am back to my old philosophy of "go with the market". Regardless of how scary the market might look, if it is a bull market, the better odds are on the long side. I am still mostly in calls. However, at present, only about 20% of my portfolio is invested. The rest is in cash. For a portfolio that trades in options only, risk management requires me to stay largely in cash just so that if the market turns against me and I lose 100% of the invested capital (currently in options), I still have enough reserves to stage a comeback. Remember, the market trend dictates the direction that 3 out of 4 stocks will follow.
Anyway, my current positions are in AOL (coming out of a flag pattern), SYY (my profit windfall for last year), MSFT (I think the pull back is done and the stock will perform over the next month or so, plus I like that Ballmer is leaving and the XBOX One platform is pretty nice, and the charts look good). GTI, ZNGA, DANG, DRYS and CLF are some of the other currently held positions.
Here is to a great 2014, and may I have the time to continue to post more stock analysis that I have in the last 2 years.
Cheers.
I started this account with $3000 in the beginning of 2010 with the goal of turning it into $1 Million. Let's see where we are with that goal. As of yesterday, the account is around $16000 and I pulled out around $1400 to pay for my toys (XBox One, PS4, and some other electronics). By the end of 2010, the account had a return of around 100%. Then I lost track because I failed to download my statements. But I had made it up to around $12,000. At that point, I was introduced to the guys at Tasty Trade. I listened to what Tom has to say and it made a lot of sense. So I started following their style of investing, which is stay small, sell premium (instead of buying calls and puts, I was selling calls and puts trying for about an 8 to 10 percent return per month). However, they were somewhat biased towards a market drop (bears). To make a long story short, over the next year I managed to lose 50% of the portfolio and ended back around $6000. I am not saying anything bad about their style but it didn't work for me in this market. It will work much better in a sideways market (or a trending market if you pick the right side).
In Dec 2012, the portfolio was worth $8000. And as I mentioned earlier, now the value is around $16,000 (so the 2013 return was around 100%). Granted I have not pulled money out of this account to pay for taxes, which is probably something I should do in order to have a true representation of performance in an taxable account. In 3 years, the portfolio has generated a return of approximately 450%+ on the original investment.
So now I am back to my old philosophy of "go with the market". Regardless of how scary the market might look, if it is a bull market, the better odds are on the long side. I am still mostly in calls. However, at present, only about 20% of my portfolio is invested. The rest is in cash. For a portfolio that trades in options only, risk management requires me to stay largely in cash just so that if the market turns against me and I lose 100% of the invested capital (currently in options), I still have enough reserves to stage a comeback. Remember, the market trend dictates the direction that 3 out of 4 stocks will follow.
Anyway, my current positions are in AOL (coming out of a flag pattern), SYY (my profit windfall for last year), MSFT (I think the pull back is done and the stock will perform over the next month or so, plus I like that Ballmer is leaving and the XBOX One platform is pretty nice, and the charts look good). GTI, ZNGA, DANG, DRYS and CLF are some of the other currently held positions.
Here is to a great 2014, and may I have the time to continue to post more stock analysis that I have in the last 2 years.
Cheers.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) update
The flag pattern appeared to break down and the stock price undercut the stop loss order point that would normally be set by investors. A lot of the people who got stopped out might now want to get back in now that the stock is rallying and is gaping up. I have decided to stick with my positions even though they expire in December to see if I can hit my targeted returns. Here is to the current optimism in the market (however temporary until the next set of bad news comes in from Europe) and the potential profits.
Friday, November 11, 2011
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) update
The stock still continues to base in the formation. We no longer have the pennant formation. I would say the flag formation is still intact. But the move needs to happen soon. I am targeting a move from 34 to 35 to start taking profits (or sooner if this pattern takes too long to materialize). I am starting to see a lot of positive coverage in the press about DPZ (e.g. Cramer has now recommended it in Mad Money). I am looking for that move where everyone piles in driving the stock up about 15-20% and take my profits as option expiration drawn near.
Friday, November 4, 2011
New Stock Setup - Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
Looks like Domino's is setting up a very nice Penant (Flag) formation. This formation can pay off handsomely if it works. Take a look at the attached chart.
The stock has moved from around a low of 26 (Oct 4) to around 32.50 for the flag pole formation. And then is around 31.5 at present while making the flag/pennant formation. That is about a 17% move (all numbers are rough and conservative). A flag or pennant formation will generally result in the same percentage move if it breaks to the upside as before. So we can (very conservatively) look for about a $5 move from here in a short period of time. I am playing this with Dec options. Dec 32 calls are running around 1.05 bid and 1.25 ask (but you can probably get them around 1.15). I would expect the option to get to $4 or higher if the stocks makes it move in short order making it a potential triple play. I also own some Dec 30 calls at present. Of course, if the market breaks down (and who knows which direction it will head into with the Greek disaster that is ongoing in the European front), all bets are off. This is a high risk, high reward pattern that I have played successfully in the past for very large gains (and some severe losses as well). So buyer beware.
Disclaimer: This should not be taken as a recommendation to buy. You should do your own due diligence and research before opening any positions. Stock and Option trading is inherently risky and can result in the loss of all of your capital. You should always apply sound risk management techniques.
Disclaimer: This should not be taken as a recommendation to buy. You should do your own due diligence and research before opening any positions. Stock and Option trading is inherently risky and can result in the loss of all of your capital. You should always apply sound risk management techniques.
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Market jitters
I don't like the look of this market at all. I think we may be headed for a pretty significant pullback. I have been raising cash lately. I am about 70%+ in cash already but will probably end up going 100% to cash real soon. There may be some hope in the near term (daily charts) but the weekly and monthly charts are starting to look like a bunch of head and shoulder patterns are forming in a lot of leaders. We are starting to see the initial breakdown in some of the former leaders and the stochastics are starting to turn downwards. Better be safe and conserve capital to fight another day. There could be some downside opportunities coming up. Nothing has made me any money on the long side of the trade in over 6 weeks. Maybe the short side is the way to go. Be careful and watch the market carefully if you continue to be long.
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Market update
I am beginning to realize that blogging about anything takes time and dedication. It is too easy for me to skip posts and focus on other things. Lately I have been too busy at work to put any attention towards stocks. But that is the time when I usually fail to get out of the market and then lose money because I was unable to pay any attention to my positions. So, I am taking some time to review the market, my positions and the general overall feeling that I have.
I am probably about 50% in the market at the moment with the rest in cash. The pull back has affected my portfolio a little bit but not to a point where I start fretting about the losses. As the markets have pulled back, the general market sentiment has turned negative in a hurry with a very large bearish attitude. Combine that with a nuclear melt down, a tsunami, the Libyan war that is now brewing, and we should have the climate to have a strong rally if everything works out. I am wishing well for the Japanese nation and hope they can get things under control. The Libyan situation doesn't seem like it should get too messy for the US since a lot of UN members are in on the assault and the enforcement of the no-fly zone.
The job situation has been improving lately, but with the post office about to lay off 40,000 people, the numbers may increase again (unless offset by the private sector). The FED will probably continue to keep interest rates at negligible level. If you have been monitoring 30 yr rates lately, they have been declining. So the market is expecting the interest rates to remain low as well.
Coffee prices continue to climb. The chart makes me nervous (JO) but I have entered long on the coffee ETF since the long term trend is still intact and I think we may see another strong push towards 100. The prices at the retail continue to climb. But it cannot go on forever. I am trying to make a momentum play and have Good till cancelled sell orders placed at the $85 mark.
I am fairly optimistic about Intuitive Surgical. The stock has been consolidating its gains at the top, and despite minor pullbacks still continues to show strong support. I think if the next earnings blow out estimates (as they normally do), we can see a huge move in the stock. F is at a good buy point and will probably realize better sales due to the Japanese auto production slowdown/stoppage. Garmin has been a solid stock and I think its getting ready to make a move to 36 soon. All we need is some positive news. But there will probably be more pain in the near future. It really depends on your time horizon. If you are a long term holder then you can probably ride out the turbulence. But if the republicans insist on cutting spending, they may end up killing the recovery and then all bets are off. So if you are still in the market, play it cautiously and only if you can keep tabs on your positions. Probably stay away from options for the time being unless you are trying to play short term rallies, and then take your profits when they materialize.
I am probably about 50% in the market at the moment with the rest in cash. The pull back has affected my portfolio a little bit but not to a point where I start fretting about the losses. As the markets have pulled back, the general market sentiment has turned negative in a hurry with a very large bearish attitude. Combine that with a nuclear melt down, a tsunami, the Libyan war that is now brewing, and we should have the climate to have a strong rally if everything works out. I am wishing well for the Japanese nation and hope they can get things under control. The Libyan situation doesn't seem like it should get too messy for the US since a lot of UN members are in on the assault and the enforcement of the no-fly zone.
The job situation has been improving lately, but with the post office about to lay off 40,000 people, the numbers may increase again (unless offset by the private sector). The FED will probably continue to keep interest rates at negligible level. If you have been monitoring 30 yr rates lately, they have been declining. So the market is expecting the interest rates to remain low as well.
Coffee prices continue to climb. The chart makes me nervous (JO) but I have entered long on the coffee ETF since the long term trend is still intact and I think we may see another strong push towards 100. The prices at the retail continue to climb. But it cannot go on forever. I am trying to make a momentum play and have Good till cancelled sell orders placed at the $85 mark.
I am fairly optimistic about Intuitive Surgical. The stock has been consolidating its gains at the top, and despite minor pullbacks still continues to show strong support. I think if the next earnings blow out estimates (as they normally do), we can see a huge move in the stock. F is at a good buy point and will probably realize better sales due to the Japanese auto production slowdown/stoppage. Garmin has been a solid stock and I think its getting ready to make a move to 36 soon. All we need is some positive news. But there will probably be more pain in the near future. It really depends on your time horizon. If you are a long term holder then you can probably ride out the turbulence. But if the republicans insist on cutting spending, they may end up killing the recovery and then all bets are off. So if you are still in the market, play it cautiously and only if you can keep tabs on your positions. Probably stay away from options for the time being unless you are trying to play short term rallies, and then take your profits when they materialize.
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Market update
Soon after I got out, it appears that the market staged a nice rally and most of the stocks are back to or above the levels where I exited the market. I did enter new positions in First Solar (FSLR) and JA Solar Holding (JASO) - I wonder if I bought it since the company is named with my initials :-)
I have also held onto BCSI, IBM and reentered ISRG. I missed out on the big move by Chipotle (CMG). Heard they are launching a new asian cuisine chain. That could really get growth to spurt if successful. I took profits in JO (coffee ETF and SGG - Sugar ETF). The Sugar ETF was timed well, the coffee as well, but the coffee ETF has taken off since then. I am looking to reenter the coffee etf if the position presents itself. I believe Coffee prices will continue to increase for a while. Sugar might also be attractive as it has pulled back 10% or so.
I am just too busy at work to mess too much with stocks. Hence the reduced number of posts. I currently have open long call positions in AMSC (losing money), FORM (losing money - didn't take my 150% profits), GLW (profitable), GRMN (profitable), and Ford (about breakeven).
Markets have been acting strong and I am beginning to think that my old analysis that was thinking about DOW 13500 or higher may not be far fetched anymore. However, the Nasdaq is approaching the high set in late 2007. A pull back may occur soon in the markets. So I am cautiously optimistic.
I have also held onto BCSI, IBM and reentered ISRG. I missed out on the big move by Chipotle (CMG). Heard they are launching a new asian cuisine chain. That could really get growth to spurt if successful. I took profits in JO (coffee ETF and SGG - Sugar ETF). The Sugar ETF was timed well, the coffee as well, but the coffee ETF has taken off since then. I am looking to reenter the coffee etf if the position presents itself. I believe Coffee prices will continue to increase for a while. Sugar might also be attractive as it has pulled back 10% or so.
I am just too busy at work to mess too much with stocks. Hence the reduced number of posts. I currently have open long call positions in AMSC (losing money), FORM (losing money - didn't take my 150% profits), GLW (profitable), GRMN (profitable), and Ford (about breakeven).
Markets have been acting strong and I am beginning to think that my old analysis that was thinking about DOW 13500 or higher may not be far fetched anymore. However, the Nasdaq is approaching the high set in late 2007. A pull back may occur soon in the markets. So I am cautiously optimistic.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Whew - Close call
The decision to sell early this morning turned out to be the right one. I saved a major hit to the portfolio by going to cash. Even strong players got hit hard today. Generally down days come in threes. So expect to see more downward pressure. Since the DOW got rejected at 12,000 I expect a pull back, some consolidation, then another attempt at breaking 12,000. Be careful, and make some money.
Going mostly to cash
Crazy action. Selling on good news is prevalent. Crash on bad news also. Going mostly to cash again except for my commodities ETFs.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Position Updates
Closed out my GLW calls for 1.10 and the puts for 0.8 for about a 50% profit on the position. Of course, I sold too early (and I was sure I was selling early). But I then entered a long position on GLW with the Aug 2011 - $22 calls. They are now up around 0.40 as well (but the entry price was around 1.48). I believe the stock has good potential to move up a bit more.
I also entered new positions (shares) in SGG (sugar ETF) and JO (coffee ETF). I should have entered the sugar ETF last thursday when I hesitated and missed out on about an 8% move already. But these trends have to be a bit longer term (due to floods in Brazil, Australia, and coffee production impacts in Columbia and Brazil). Even Starbucks lowered their projections based upon the assumption that they will pay more for coffee (and if you are a coffee drinker, you might have noticed the price spikes at the grocery store). This is my first venture into commodity ETFs. Let's see how it plays out.
I also entered new positions (shares) in SGG (sugar ETF) and JO (coffee ETF). I should have entered the sugar ETF last thursday when I hesitated and missed out on about an 8% move already. But these trends have to be a bit longer term (due to floods in Brazil, Australia, and coffee production impacts in Columbia and Brazil). Even Starbucks lowered their projections based upon the assumption that they will pay more for coffee (and if you are a coffee drinker, you might have noticed the price spikes at the grocery store). This is my first venture into commodity ETFs. Let's see how it plays out.
Monday, January 24, 2011
New Position
Opening a strangle on Corning (GLW) - with Feb 20 calls and Feb 19 puts for a net entry cost of around 0.79 per share (call + put). Earnings coming out on Tuesday.
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Update
Apple has taken a beating over the last few days since Steve Jobs announced his medical leave. I might suspect that he may not return this time. That makes it tough to hold on to the stock, yet I would expect the company to continue to deliver strong results at least for another year or two.
Intuitive Surgical beat earnings handily and the stock jumped 36 dollars on Friday (I believe it was up more than 40 at one time). This one position has kept me from losing value in the portfolio due to Apple and Coin Star.
Lot of indicators are now heading lower making me really nervous. I have been looking at the sugar ETF - SGG. I almost bought it on Thursday but didn't pull the trigger. On friday, the shares jumped up around 3.6% to close around 94+. The floods around the world (the most significant ones being in Brazil - #1 producer of sugar in the world, and Australia - #5 producer) have impacted the supply of sugar at a time when demand is rising. Pakistan also experienced floods and a huge part of their sugarcane crop was wiped out). Combine that with the production of Ethanol in Brazil using Sugar cane, and the world has seen the price of sugar more than double in the last year. The sugar beet crop in UK has experienced damage due to the snow/thaw. The US industry is in limbo pending the court decision on genetically engineered round up resistant sugar beets. 50% of the US sugar production comes from sugar beets. The sugar ETF SGG hit a low of 37.18 in May 2010, and closed on Friday at 94.16. That is almost a 200% run up (and something that made me hesitate on Thursday). But I guess, with commodities you have to take advantage of the situation when the conditions are right because soon the market will adjust.
Intuitive Surgical beat earnings handily and the stock jumped 36 dollars on Friday (I believe it was up more than 40 at one time). This one position has kept me from losing value in the portfolio due to Apple and Coin Star.
Lot of indicators are now heading lower making me really nervous. I have been looking at the sugar ETF - SGG. I almost bought it on Thursday but didn't pull the trigger. On friday, the shares jumped up around 3.6% to close around 94+. The floods around the world (the most significant ones being in Brazil - #1 producer of sugar in the world, and Australia - #5 producer) have impacted the supply of sugar at a time when demand is rising. Pakistan also experienced floods and a huge part of their sugarcane crop was wiped out). Combine that with the production of Ethanol in Brazil using Sugar cane, and the world has seen the price of sugar more than double in the last year. The sugar beet crop in UK has experienced damage due to the snow/thaw. The US industry is in limbo pending the court decision on genetically engineered round up resistant sugar beets. 50% of the US sugar production comes from sugar beets. The sugar ETF SGG hit a low of 37.18 in May 2010, and closed on Friday at 94.16. That is almost a 200% run up (and something that made me hesitate on Thursday). But I guess, with commodities you have to take advantage of the situation when the conditions are right because soon the market will adjust.
Monday, January 10, 2011
Beginning of new earning season
Earning season is upon us again and was opened by Alcoa beating earnings. With the recovery in the economy, companies should generally surprise to the upside. I'll start doing some research and see if we can make some money in this stretch.
On a side note, I like NCR - makers of ATMs and the Blockbuster DVD rental kiosks that are popping up all over the place. I believe there is money to be made there... (PS: They are competing against CSTR - coinstar - which I am still holding).
On a side note, I like NCR - makers of ATMs and the Blockbuster DVD rental kiosks that are popping up all over the place. I believe there is money to be made there... (PS: They are competing against CSTR - coinstar - which I am still holding).
Monday, December 27, 2010
Slow marketshe
The markets are just meandering around on low volume. We probably won't see a meaningful direction until next year. It would be nice to see a leader rotation and some new leaders emerge as some of the older leaders look maxed out. Let's see what the new year brings...
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
New positions - Stock - AMZN, ORCL, NVDA
I have opened new long positions in Amazon (AMZN), Oracle (ORCL) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Entry prices: AMZN 182.79, ORCL 31.85 , NVDA 14.83
Entry prices: AMZN 182.79, ORCL 31.85 , NVDA 14.83
Monday, December 20, 2010
Dec update
Due to a lack of time to pay attention to my positions, the majority of the positions expired worthless. I did manage to sell some positions here and there. So as a result, my year to date return (since I started the blog) is now back down to about 100%. Since I was up 200%+ at the peak, the market has taken back quite a bit of the gains. So I am going to start thinking about switching to a swing trading strategy with 2-3 month time frame (playing longer term options instead of front month positions).
Oracle (ORCL) is looking very promising. I am eyeing the Mar 32 calls for around 1.29 each.
I am also trying to look at the big cloud computing players and determine which ones to buy (the major players are Google, Amazon, Microsoft, IBM, and Salesforce.com (CRM). Although it is tough to enter a position in a stock that is up from 25 to 135 in the last two years. But cloud computing is starting to take off at the enterprise level, and is a field that will grow exponentially for the next few years. Amazon stock chart looks really good as its coming out of a 10 yr base and doesn't look too over extended. Combine that with a high short interest, and we could be in for a nice rally soon.
Other players that will benefits from this cloud computing trend are EMC (storage) and VMWare (Virtualization platform). I will monitor these stocks and probably take long positions when opportunity presents itself. Dell is also getting in the space as a reseller for cloud computing. Combine that with the fact that Michael Dell just bought a $100 million dollars worth of DELL stock, and there just might be some hope (and the stock pattern looks promising as well). I am not sure I will get any options on that stock, but I may add some to a long term hold portfolio.
Oracle (ORCL) is looking very promising. I am eyeing the Mar 32 calls for around 1.29 each.
I am also trying to look at the big cloud computing players and determine which ones to buy (the major players are Google, Amazon, Microsoft, IBM, and Salesforce.com (CRM). Although it is tough to enter a position in a stock that is up from 25 to 135 in the last two years. But cloud computing is starting to take off at the enterprise level, and is a field that will grow exponentially for the next few years. Amazon stock chart looks really good as its coming out of a 10 yr base and doesn't look too over extended. Combine that with a high short interest, and we could be in for a nice rally soon.
Other players that will benefits from this cloud computing trend are EMC (storage) and VMWare (Virtualization platform). I will monitor these stocks and probably take long positions when opportunity presents itself. Dell is also getting in the space as a reseller for cloud computing. Combine that with the fact that Michael Dell just bought a $100 million dollars worth of DELL stock, and there just might be some hope (and the stock pattern looks promising as well). I am not sure I will get any options on that stock, but I may add some to a long term hold portfolio.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010
Position Updates
I closed out the calls in STEC and YHOO. The order for YHOO Dec 17 calls executed at 0.51 (bought around 0.50) and the STEC Dec 17 calls sold at 0.89 per share (bought around 1.20+) for a loss. I will continue to try and close out the remaining positions since I am no longer watching the market closely. I will be working on a Swing Trading shift in my strategy and see how that works out.
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Start thinking about closing out Dec calls
It is time to start closing out the Dec calls as opportunities present themselves. Market looks very unpredictable with drops possible. Although you would think that with the tax deal on the table, markets would react positively (but they may not until a definite deal is reached). Still, we won't see much of the impact of the deal until next year with the temporary social security withholding cuts, so Dec options may not perform very well. We have about a week and a 1/2 left on those options, and time decay is about to really accelerate...
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